Saturday, March 7, 2009

Is it genocide now? Is it genocide now? Is it genocide now?

So the irony of the expulsion of aid agencies from Darfur is double.

In the first instance, the expulsion is made legally possible (in a manner of speaking) by the reluctance of the ICC judges to accept the indictment for genocide. If the indictment for genocide had been upheld, expulsion of aid agencies serving the targeted populations would have been strong evidence of continuing specific intent. What other explanation for the expulsion than, now that there is no longer any danger of criminal liability, aid can be withheld and the targeted groups more quickly destroyed. In the sense, it might be worthwhile for Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo to notify Sudanese government officials that executing the expulsion order might warrant charges against those individuals (like Ali Osman Taha).

In the second instance, nothing seems more likely to generate intense pressure for China and Russia to back away even further from the regime than a redoubling of the humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur. Al-Bashir really does seem intent on a Mugabe-style "go out in flames" strategy. The differences though are important: Mugabe is not an indicted war criminal, and yet he still pursued the strategy (for reasons absolutely no one can figure out). And al-Bashir has the lurking bulk of the SPLM hovering over his shoulder, always at the ready. As more and more northern politicians defect to SPLM, that will be the en of al-Bashir. Morgan Tsvangirai has no army.

No comments:

Post a Comment